The King of the North Arrives

Reform continues to lose support. This week, our forecast has the party lose a further 35 seats, with 19 returning to Labour and 18 to the Conservatives. Labour becomes the largest projected party on 208 seats, whilst Reform falls back to 166. The losses are spread across the country, with Reform surrendering seats in both the North and traditional Conservative territory. After months of almost uninterrupted growth, the party’s momentum appears to have stalled.

Labour has gained the most from this shift. Much of the polling behind this week’s forecast was conducted in the lead up to Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister. The prospect of the King of the North appears to have helped put Labour back on the front foot. Seats across the North and Midlands have returned to Labour, giving Burnham a stronger starting position than many expected only a few weeks ago.

The Conservatives have also continued to make quiet progress. Eighteen gains from Reform and further advances against the Lib Dems suggest voters are beginning to return to the Conservatives after months of drifting towards Reform.

Farage is unlikely to have helped matters. His attempt to turn the Clacton by-election into another battle between the people and the establishment has fallen flat because the establishment simply declined the invitation. With neither Labour nor the Conservatives standing candidates, Farage has instead found himself locked in a battle with Count Binface.

Next week’s forecast will provide the first indication of whether these trends continue after Burnham enters Downing Street. Whether Labour can build on this week’s gains, or whether Reform can halt its recent decline, will become much clearer over the coming days.