The Forecasting Dataset
A constituency-level forecast of the 2026 UK General Election, combining 2024 election results with opinion polling from across England, Scotland, and Wales. By modelling changes in party support at constituency level, the forecast estimates how each parliamentary constituency would vote if an election were held today.
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Northern Ireland is not currently included within the forecasting model. The political landscape in Northern Ireland is different from that of Britain, with most major parties not contesting seats there. As a result, Northern Irish constituencies are treated as fixed seats based on the results of the 2024 General Election and are reported separately from the modelled forecast.Â
Projected Seats...
Our MethodologyÂ
This forecast is built using a constituency-level statistical model designed to estimate the current electoral landscape of the UK. The model begins with the official results of the 2-24 General Election for every parliamentary constituency in Britain. These constituency-level results provide the baseline from which all projections are generated.Â
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To estimate how voting intention has evolved since the election, the model incorporates publicly available polling from multiple organisations. Data is aggregated across a range of pollsters to reduce the impact of sampling variation and short-term fluctuations in public opinion. Data sources include: YouGov, Opinium, Find Out Now, More in Common, BMG Research, Lord Ashcroft Polls, Norstat, Survation, and Ipsos.
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Polling averages are used to calculate changes in public support relative to the 2024 election. These vote-share changes are then applied to constituency-level election results to estimate how each seat would perform under current political conditions.Â
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Recognising the distinct political dynamics of the UK’s constituent nations, the model has separate polling frameworks for Scotland and Wales. Constituencies in these nations are therefore influenced by Scotland and Wales specific polling trends.Â
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Individual constituency projections are subsequently aggregated to estimate seat totals across the House of Commons and identify the likely parliamentary balance. Forecasts are updated regularly as new polling data becomes available.