Shift analysis
Reform Under Pressure
By Grace Wilson | 17th August 2026
Based on shifts in our poll analysis from 03/08/26 - 17/08/26.
Labour has gained 17 prospective seats this fortnight, with gains stretching across the North, Midlands and Southern England. Seats such as Bassetlaw, Bolsover and Erewash have shifted back from Reform, alongside constituencies further south such as Bournemouth West. Labour has also picked up six seats from SNP. This suggests that Labour’s improving national position under Burnham is beginning to feed through into constituency-level gains, with voters who had previously moved away from Labour starting to return.
Reform has lost 14 seats to Labour and 8 to the Conservatives, leaving them on 103 prospective seats compared with 113 two weeks ago. The Conservatives have meanwhile gained seven seats overall, recovering constituencies such as Gainsborough. It appears that Reform is being squeezed from both sides. Labour is recovering support among voters who had moved towards Reform, while the Conservatives are beginning to reclaim traditional territory.
Burnham’s first weeks in No.10 appear to be helping Labour maintain its momentum. His early focus on the cost of living has given the new government a series of straightforward policies to point to. However, Labour’s gains have slowed somewhat compared with the previous forecast, perhaps suggesting that the initial optimism surrounding Burnham’s arrival is beginning to settle as voters wait to see what his government can deliver. The next few weeks should therefore give us a better indication of whether this is a genuine shift in Labour’s fortunes or simply an early honeymoon.
Constituency Shifts
Bassetlaw: Reform → Labour
Bathgate and Linlithgow: SNP → Labour
Blackpool North and Fleetwood: Labour → Reform
Bolsover: Reform → Labour
Bournemouth West: Reform → Labour
Bristol East: Green → Labour
Buckingham and Bletchley: Conservative → Labour
Cardiff East: Plaid → Labour
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy: SNP → Labour
Dunfermline and Dollar: SNP → Labour
East Kilbride and Strathaven: SNP → Labour
Erewash: Reform → Labour
Gainsborough: Reform → Conservative
Gloucester: Reform → Labour
Harwich and North Essex: Reform → Conservative
Hereford and South Herefordshire: Reform → Conservative
Herne Bay and Sandwich: Conservative → Reform
Heywood and Middleton North: Labour → Reform
Houghton and Sunderland South: Labour → Reform
Kettering: Reform → Labour
Llanelli: Plaid → Reform
Maldon: Reform → Conservative
Mid Dorset and North Poole: Reform → Conservative
Midlothian: SNP → Labour
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: Plaid → Reform
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke: SNP → Labour
North Dorset: Lib Dem → Conservative
Northampton South: Reform → Labour
Oldham East and Saddleworth: Labour → Reform
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton: Labour → Reform
Pendle and Clitheroe: Labour → Conservative
Plymouth Moor View: Reform → Labour
Pontypridd: Plaid → Reform
Rochdale: Labour → Reform
Romford: Conservative → Reform
Sleaford and North Hykeham: Reform → Conservative
South Derbyshire: Reform → Labour
South Holland and The Deepings: Reform → Conservative
South Norfolk: Reform → Labour
South Suffolk: Reform → Conservative
Southend East and Rochford: Reform → Labour
Southend West and Leigh: Reform → Labour
Swansea West: Plaid → Labour
Wellingborough and Rushden: Reform → Labour
Weston-super-Mare: Reform → Labour
Wrexham: Plaid → Reform