Face the Music

Within the space of 2 months, we have witnessed both the most consequential by-election in British history, and the most humiliating. No prize for guessing which is which. Winning the Clacton by-election was a foregone conclusion for Nigel Farage, who remains a popular figure in his constituency, especially once the major parties had pulled out of the race. Farage's misstep has seriously harmed his electoral chances nationally, where he is now fighting with Zak Polanski for the celebrated title of Britain's most unpopular party leader. Yet exactly why he remains a powerful political figure is equally laid bare.  

 

Farage did not wish to attend his moment of victory. Perhaps because, no matter the manner of his re-election, this was an undeniable political rout. Fears of disruption were cited, yet the desire not to be seen on stage with Nick the Incredible Flying Brick, Howling Laud Hope and the esteemed Lord Binface is clearly his motivation. Powerful British politicians are often pictured standing awkwardly next to rival candidates in fluffy costumes, yet this is only bearable when an actual victory has been won. Farage has wasted £250,000 of taxpayer money, directed media attention towards a farcical election campaign and simply delayed the parliamentary investigation into his undeclared £5 million ‘gift’. Perhaps Farage did not deliver his victory speech because he wished to warm up for his more important by-election victory speech following the conclusion of the parliamentary investigation, a few months down the line.  

 

While Reform is held stationary by Farage's awkward political manoeuvrings, voters nationally have begun to sour on the leader, and therefore the party. Farage's approval rating has dropped from – 1 in August 2025 (the highest rating for a major party leader) to – 27 a year later. In the Clacton campaign, Farage wished to use his generic populist formula, a virtuous battle against the establishment. A formula that would work if the major parties contested the election. It simply does not work, however, when sparring with an intergalactic bin. As Farage declared victory, he suggested he had “beat the establishment candidate”, suggesting he either possesses a sharp sense of humour or is growing increasingly rash, fanciful and self-deluding. While he will now return as the MP for Clacton, his national image is in tatters, and he has alienated the moderate voters that Reform had to win to form a governing majority. These voters have likely now been lost. For Reform to form a government independently, perhaps Farage would need to step aside.  

 

Yet what is the purpose of Reform? Farage has achieved many of his political goals by pressuring major parties to change direction, not driving it through himself. A referendum on EU membership was tabled by David Cameron as the Conservatives were losing significant support to UKIP. Keir Starmer tacked right on immigration, with deeply politically damaging rhetoric, exemplified by the ‘Island of Strangers’ speech. These are just two examples of how effective pressure from Farage is in shaping central policy for any party in governance. This, from the position of a large party retaining around 20% of the vote nationally, would be exaggerated even further. Will Reform be able to take the leap into governance, or will it remain a vehicle for Farage to exert pressure on British politics? 

 

The political power of Farage is still very much present. While losing 9455 votes to Count Binface is an incredible turn of events, Farage certainly remains popular in areas such as Clacton. Reform still polls at a healthy 24% nationally, and seemingly no matter the result of the parliamentary investigation, there will remain a core proportion of the British electorate that would still back Farage. When questioned on the £5 million donation, the retort was ‘who cares?’ Accountability remains important to voters in Britain as a whole, even if it is ignored by some sections of the population. Farage retains the full-throated support of a significant proportion of the electorate.  

 

This roaring passion for a leader is largely unique in British politics. Watch any speech Farage gives at Reform UK rallies; seemingly, the more unpopular Farage gets nationally, the more fervently he is backed by his base voters. It provides Farage with the greatest platform he has ever had to make the weather in our politics; yet alone, it will not be enough to bridge the gap to Number 10. Will Farage, upon the realisation that the elusive moderate voters will increasingly turn elsewhere, tack Reform rightwards to kick back on Restore and become a permanent fixture to the right of the Conservatives? Look what Farage achieved with the Brexit referendum from the lesser position of UKIP leader. He has dealt himself what could be a deadly blow in his bid to become prime minister. That does not mean, however, that his ability to shape British politics is gone. Count Binface has helped make Farage a figure of ridicule nationally. Yet for a substantial proportion of the population, that matters not. This group is where Farage's power to influence our politics will be increasingly anchored.