The Initial Projection

The first projection of the election forecasting model places Reform as the largest parliamentary party on 247 seats, well ahead of Labour on 163 seats and the Conservatives on 87. Although Reform falls 79 seats short of an overall majority, the party currently occupies the strongest electoral position, with support extending across many of Labour's former Red Wall constituencies and a significant number of traditionally Conservative seats. Labour retains substantial representation but would currently be some distance from returning to government, while the Conservatives continue to struggle following the May 2026 election.