Old Habits Die Hard

Support for Reform continues to slide, while the Conservatives and Labour maintain their gains of the past few weeks, albeit to a lesser extent. Reform has lost 9 seats nationally, while the Tories have gained a single seat and Labour have gained 8. While Reform still tops FPW’s average poll calculation at 24.56%, their seat total has in the past month collapsed, with Labour and the Conservatives picking up the pieces. Since our first election forecast on 23/06/26, Reform have lost 90 seats while Labour have gained 53 seats, and the Tories have reclaimed 42. This contrast between average national polling percentage – which maintains a Reform lead – and a collapsing seat total highlights the contradictions of a first-past-the-post electoral system (FPTP).  

We have seen plenty of Red Wall seats, such as Blyth and Ashington, Penistone and Stocksbridge and Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor, shift back from Reform to Labour. Interestingly, these specific seats prove that Burnham’s appeal is not confined to the North West, but spreads across to the North East and Yorkshire to a similarly powerful extent. This week, since Burnham’s entrance to No. 10 on the 20th July, Labour’s rising seat total has been maintained, yet has slowed somewhat. This reflects perhaps a cooling of support based on optimism, and a growing group of voters stepping back and reserving judgement on what concrete changes Burnham can bring in.  

Our forecasting is increasingly pointing to the possible return to two-party-politics, something that mere months ago seemed dead and buried. This is very fragile indeed, and is reliant completely on the FPTP system. Interestingly, the only two party leaders in the UK with net positive popularity ratings are Burnham and Badenoch, perhaps helping to further this trend. According to our calculations, Reform's poll average remains the highest at 24.56%, while Labour’s total comes out at 21.26% and the Conservatives at 20.04%. However, a recent poll from More in Common has Labour leading in the vote share, let alone in projected seats. With a reinvigorated Labour Party that is starting to reconnect with traditional voters that had been flirting with Reform, and a stabilised Conservative Party that looks less erratic, reclaiming heartlands such as South Norfolk, Britain could be on course to return to two-party politics.  

Perhaps visions of a Reform government are fading, with traditional politics possibly returning. This is now only a whisper, and could be swept away by our fast-moving modern politics. While Farage may have run out of road, Reform and the Greens remain a consistent threat to both parties, and they are most certainly not spent forces. These shifts are just shifts, and are certainly nothing concrete. Yet they indicate a direction that for a long time seemed dead and buried.