New Methodology

Please Note: This week's forecast uses an updated methodology. Seat changes compared with last week's projections reflected both changes in public opinion and revisions to the forecasting model.

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Opinion Poll Analysis: Polling over the past week indicates that Labour has consolidated its position at the top of the polls, with support ranging between 23% and 28%. Labour has established a constant lead over Reform UK.

Reform is polling between 22% and 24%, with recent polls suggesting that the party has lost the momentum it once had after reaching a peak of 31% in October 2025. Conservative support has remained relatively steady, generally polling between 17% and 21%. 

Under the model's updated methodology, these polling trends translate into a comfortable Labour lead of 268 seats, ahead of Reform UK at just 113 seats. 

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