Right-Wing Realignment

This week’s forecast shows a significant movement from Reform to the Conservatives, with the Conservatives gaining 10 seats to reach 127, while Reform falls by 8 to 98. Labour is stable at 279, gaining one seat.

The Conservative gain is particularly notable because it is being driven by direct constituency-level movement from Reform. Eight of the ten Conservative gains come from Reform, with the remaining two coming from the Lib Dems. For Reform, the eight seat fall is the clearest negative movement in the forecast for several weeks. While the party remains at a substantial level of support, this week indicates that it's proving less resilient at constituency level. Labour’s position, meanwhile, is essentially unchanged, with its small gain largely reflecting movement in Scotland.

Next week’s forecast could show considerably more movement. Parliament returned on 1 September following the summer recess, bringing the parties back into sustained parliamentary scrutiny. More importantly, Reform is now facing significant scrutiny following the Channel 4 News undercover investigation into alleged undeclared foreign-funded polling.