Can Reform Outlast Farage?

Nigel Farage has just shot himself in the foot. His battle against the establishment has been reduced to a contest with an intergalactic bin, and from nowhere, Farage increasingly seems rattled and frustrated. Can Reform UK outgrow its central figure, and become a permanent fixture of British Parliamentary politics, or are the party's fortunes permanently tied to Farage? If Reform is unable to break free of this bind, it will be relegated to the garbage bin of British politics, akin to the SDP of the 1980s and the Liberal Party of the early 19th century.  

 

The trap Reform is currently in highlights the Achilles heel of all populist right-wing political parties worldwide. They can only function and succeed with an all-important charismatic and inspiring leader directing the party. MAGA in the US have Trump, Fidesz in Hungary has Orbán and the Brothers of Italy have Meloni; all these movements seemingly lack identity and direction without their central leader. This is distinct from more established political parties that retain a separate identity from their leader. The Conservative Party, for example, runs through leaders at an astounding rate. Yet the party retains a constant image and relatively stable political prevalence regardless of the quality of its leader. It is yet unclear, and seemingly unlikely, that Reform can perform the same trick.  

 

Instantly following Farage’s assumption of leadership of Reform UK, polling numbers bounced 7% (Politico). Indeed, Farage’s UKIP party, his outfit before Reform, fell off the political landscape once he left – the achievement of Brexit aside – pointing to Farage’s star factor on the right of our politics. Will Reform suffer the same fate if Farage is considered too politically toxic to lead Reform at the next election, and who could command a tight grip over the right of the party whilst remaining accessible for more moderate voters? There is likely no quick answer.  

 

At a moment when Reform was hoping to shed its extreme image and appeal more to the political centre, Farage has tacked back to the fringe. He will win the by-election, but fighting a joke candidate whilst retaining an air of utter seriousness is deeply embarrassing for the voters that Reform must win over to form a majority government. Winning back Clacton is not what Reform needs. They must win traditional Tory seats such as Broadland and Fakeham, or old red wall seats such as Wycombe, to build a governing coalition. This political stunt from Farage has brought him back into the political limelight and may have saved his skin for the moment, yet it will likely block Reform from government by the next election if Farage remains the leader. Here, the question of whether Reform can outgrow Farage becomes central. He can, and may yet remain leader, yet as the next general election draws nearer, rival figures in Reform will begin to question whether Farage is too fringe for No. 10. Farage's ability to capture the political limelight may just have proved his downfall.  
  

Fighting an unnecessary by-election, while the nation roots for the favoured Count Binface, is simply not prime ministerial. Opposition Reform figures must be licking their lips, eyeing the party's top job. A leader of Reform must rant and rail against the establishment, whilst wearing their Eton leavers' gown, and equally incoherently blame all of Britain's complex problems on immigration. This is easy. The more complex features of Farage’s role as leader of Reform UK would be harder to replicate. Farage is Britain's best political communicator. He defines the political agenda in the UK and commands the attention of the media, which, to an extent, can explain Reform’s rise in the polls. This is a role that any prospective leader of Reform must succeed in, yet no potential successor has indicated signs of possessing abilities comparable to Farage. A Reform leader who is unable to direct the media - to choose what issue British politics is focused upon in any given week - will be unable to keep Reform front and centre in the conversation.  

 

Reform has no history to fall back on. Labour and the Conservatives are massive organisations and are deeply embedded in communities across the nation. Both traditional parties can survive and thrive soon after the total failure of a leader. Reform does not have this privilege. If Reform can’t bridge this gap to the next leader correctly before the party spreads its roots across the nation, the initial rapid rise of Reform will give way to a dramatic fall. For Reform to win the next election, a new leader must rise from the ranks, possessing the same political acumen as Farage. They cannot do it with their current leader, who has trashed his brand for the moderate voters whom Reform need to form a governing majority. 

 

The bar to become the leader of Reform is higher than that of other parties, due to such a centralised structure that relies greatly upon a charismatic leader. Robert Jenrick does not fit the bill. Neither does Lee Anderson nor Suella Braverman, at that. As a graveyard of expired Tory politicians, Reform risks being dragged to the fly-tip of failed British political parties. Who would have thought that filling your party with expired political talent was not a forward-thinking strategy? Reform is Britain’s youngest significant party, yet its overreliance upon one figure could be fatal. Reform must evolve or face extinction. So far, however, there are few signs that they will.