Editorial Analysis
Is the Green Insurgency Still Alive?
By William Collinson
September 24, 2026
11 min read
Image: msn.com
From a set of triumphant May local election results to a fall from record polling levels, the Greens have seen a tumultuous summer that has seen their support decline from, perhaps, an unsustainable high. Two parallel opportunities have now emerged: firstly for Zak Polanski to reverse this trend, and secondly for Labour to stifle the progressive insurgency that has been a persistent thorn in its side. In truth, Burnham should be grateful for the opportunity to prove himself. Yet it does not come without risks. After 11 years as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras, the former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has announced his intention to step down, thus triggering a by-election scheduled for the 8th of October. While this has come at a bad time for the Greens, having slumped 7 points in the polls since their peak in March 2026, it represents an opportunity for Polanski to reclaim agency on the progressive wing of British politics and establish a new lease of life for his eco-socialist experiment as leader of the Greens.
What could initially have been read as a spiteful jab from Starmer at the new Labour government should now be seen as a clear opportunity for Labour to reclaim the narrative on the left of British politics, and perhaps to knock Polanski out of the political conversation. In setting up an opportunity for the Green Party leader to enter Parliament, Starmer has instead provided Burnham with the chance to do what he never could: become the figurehead of the progressive wing of British politics.
Polanski's Challenge
For a brief moment, it appeared that the Green Party had replaced Labour as the main party of the left. On March 26th 2026, the Greens polled for the first time as the second most popular party nationally, albeit on 18%, one point ahead of Labour (Politico). Equally, the Greens enjoyed significant breakthroughs in the May local elections, with Zoë Garbett winning the Mayoralty of Hackney and, specifically in Holborn & St Pancras, winning a healthy 29.5% of the vote. Yet since the spring zenith of the Greens, support has ebbed away, largely to a Labour Party that voters increasingly recognise. In fact, Politico’s Poll of Polls suggests Green support has dipped to 11%, 13 points behind Labour. Seemingly, Labour's pivot left under Burnham has reclaimed the support of a significant portion of the progressive block.
This leaves Polanski in a tricky spot. Having suggested he would stand for any London seat were a by-election to be called, and upon the Green wave of optimism prompted by the party's newfound, if short-lived, national prominence, Polanski had to stand, otherwise, his position atop the Greens would become untenable. While Holborn & St Pancras, historically one of Labour's safest London seats, would not be Polanski’s ideal pick – a Hackney North by-election would be a thing of dreams – and developments over the summer have dampened the Greens’ optimism, refusing to stand would have been seen as Polanski bucking the challenge. This was a fight that Polanski had to take, yet one that he is likely to lose. He is, quite literally, in a fight for political survival.
Stacking the Odds
Holborn & St Pancras has been held by Labour continually since its creation in 1983, with the party’s votes never dipping below 40%. Indeed, the Holborn & St Pancras Labour Party has 3000 members, one of the largest nationally. Thus, Labour have extensive voter data, aiding their campaign greatly as they are able to concentrate on specific streets with high concentrations of swing voters, or highlighting would-be Labour voters that simply need to be mobilised to the polling stations.
Additionally, the Labour candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, has a deep local connection that will help mobilise volunteers to knock on doors and inspire a local vote. She has represented Camden Square ward since 2022, helping secure over £670 million for Camden social housing. Unsurprisingly, her selection as the Labour candidate has ruffled feathers at Reform UK, with the ever-vigilant Zia Yusuf highlighting, with a sense of shock and fear, that she was born in Somalia before adding, “Do you understand what is happening?’. This racist attack could, however, have a positive effect on Abdi-Wali's campaign. The 45.2% BAME (Black, Asian or minority ethnic) population of the constituency could see backing the Labour candidate as a way to signal their collective rejection of the politics of the far right, interestingly to the detriment of Polanski. Perhaps Hamza Chowdhury’s suggestion that the Greens should field a ‘global majority candidate’, or the separate Green push for a pro-Gaza candidate, were wiser courses of action for the national and local success of the Green Party.
A further important aspect of this contest is the mystery of to whom voters mobilised largely over Gaza will lend their support. In 2024, an Independent candidate, Andrew Feinstein, claimed 18.9% of the vote, focused largely on an anti-war message, calling for an end to British arms supply to Israel. In this by-election, however, he has pledged his support to Polanski, yet this does not necessarily mean his voters from 2024 will follow suit.
Adding extra fuel to this by-election fire, George Galloway, a figurehead of the anti-war left in the UK, has announced his candidacy for the Workers Party of Britain. Reaching his peak notoriety in his visceral opposition to Britain's role in the 2003 Iraq War, Galloway is known for combative rhetoric in support of his commitment to international socialism and opposition to US imperialism and Zionism. At a time when some Green supporters have questioned how truly anti-Zionist Polanski is, exemplified by the internal push for a candidate focused on Gaza in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election, the emergence of Galloway as an anti-war and pro-Gaza candidate in the constituency is truly unwelcome news for the Green leader. If Galloway focuses his oratory prowess on Gaza, and mobilises even a section of the 2024 Feinstein vote, Polanski could feel the electoral squeeze from both sides.
Two Routes Out
If Polanski is in the fight for his political survival, how could he manage to break free of the bind he has found himself in? Simply put, he must defeat Labour on environmentalism and Galloway on the Palestine issue. Burnham’s ‘pragmatic’ approach to North Sea oil and gas is home turf for the Greens, a ripe political issue that Polanski could use to harness the support of much of the largely progressive population of Holborn & St Pancras. Energy polling conducted by IPSOS suggests that 27% of 2024 Labour voters oppose expanding oil and gas drilling compared to 20% who strongly support it, while amongst non-Reform, Labour or Conservative voters, opposition rises to 43%.
This route has wider scope, as campaigning on the environment takes aim at the whole progressive voter base in the constituency, rather than the approximate 1/5 of the population that voted in 2024 for single-issue pro-Gaza candidates, most prominent being Feinstein.
While the announcement of the government's position on North Sea oil and gas has reportedly been delayed until after the Holborn & St Pancras by-election, the writing is seemingly on the wall, providing Polanski a golden opportunity to take a large chunk of Abdi-Wali's vote over bread-and-butter Green issues. Equally, if this issue is seen to play a role in causing a significant shrink in the Labour majority in the constituency, where there is precedent after 2024 for such significant shifts within this Labour London stronghold, Burnham could be forced to reconsider his position on North Sea oil and gas. If Polanski plays his cards on environmentalism right, he could pressure Labour into a change of course, and could even see himself swept into the House of Commons on a ticket for environmental action. While the former at present seems the more likely, any development which increases the relevance of climate change in a politics which has increasingly forgotten our most pressing issue is certainly welcome.
Focusing on winning the debate on Gaza with Galloway is also important, as any calculation for a Green victory, or even in order to present a significant challenge to Labour in the constituency, relied upon the base vote of the pro-Palestine vote. Indeed, upon Feinstein's endorsement of Polanski, a Green victory appeared to gain a significant boost. Combined, the 2024 totals of Feinstein and the Greens approach 1/3 of the vote, a significant proportion. Of course, in the 2024 general election the Greens were not a single-issue pro-Gaza party. But the combined support for parties with a pro-Gazan standpoint highlights that there is a large portion of the vote up for grabs for whichever candidate best represents the Palestinian cause. For a Green success, this must be Zak Polanski.
Do-or-Die Moment
The battle for control of the progressive wing of British politics is well and truly underway. For Zak Polanski to enter Parliament, the environment and Palestine must play a significant role in his campaign. Indeed, the Commons is severely lacking for representation of both titanic issues, something Polanski can change through victory. Equally pressurising the government on these issues by taking a significant chunk out of Labour’s majority would be a positive step. Yet Labour with Sagal Abdi-Wali certainly remain firm favourites. Even at Labour's nadir of the May 2026 local elections, the party still attracted 39% of the vote in the constituency, 9 points ahead of the Greens. Is Polanski’s star power enough to overcome such overriding odds, and buck the national trend towards Labour? Indeed, Burnham proved how high-profile candidates can electrify by-elections and prompt surprising results distinct from national trends, taking the Makerfield by-election, which by all socio-economic and demographic indicators should have been a Reform gain.
The walls are evidently closing in for Polanski. Backed into a corner, Polanski must, for his own survival, redirect the Green Party towards the very environmentalism his leadership has overlooked in favour of more popular, even Corbynista left-wing economic policy. If he attracts a significant portion of historic Labour voters by campaigning on environmentalism and against the UK's position on Palestine, his leadership of the Greens can certainly be defended, and Burnham’s government will receive a clear indication of the position of Britain's progressives on such issues. This fascinating by-election seems an apt microcosm for the debate on the left of British politics at present. Abdi-Wali is an excellent example of how the devolution of power can benefit local communities, and would do well to campaign on the cost-of-living crisis, while stressing her impressive locality and strong record of public service in the area. Polanski is tasked with fending off Galloway over Palestine, before then turning to attack Labour on the environment. Looking east from Westminster, or even south from Manchester, Burnham must be aware of the gravity of this by-election for the left of British politics, and for the future direction of his administration. Either the Green insurgency continues into its second, more nationally relevant phase, or a persistent thorn in the side of the Labour government is cast aside. If it is the latter, we could see a progressive prime minister with the ability to make the weather in British politics. This is something Britain has not experienced in decades.